CCBF Blog

Well said Yvo

The former Secretary General of the UNFCCC provides a fair commentary on Doha.

www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/blog/doha-climate-talks-kyoto-protocol

 

 

Doha Disappointment & Delay

Doha achieved little.  It kept the UNFCCC process intact, committed countries accounting for 15% of global carbon emissions to a second Kyoto commitment period and ‘completed’ the Bali (AWG-LCA) workstream.  Completing this workstream was meant to allow future COPs to concentrate on a streamlined ADP (Durban Platform) process for getting a deal which applies to all countries.  Many of the unresolved issues were, however, transferred to the new forum so the much of the desired ‘simplification’ has not been achieved. 

This is the probably the best that could be done at a time when Europe struggling economically, the US is playing fiscal cliff-walking, the Middle East has multiple armed conflicts and the new Chinese Leadership is not ready to address international climate change politics.

But one feels the process is losing momentum with country positions becoming more entrenched and the Civil Society and Business cheerleaders losing interest.  

The US remains a drag on the whole process.  The EU was less united than at Durban with Poland being particularly awkward regarding its unused units from the first Kyoto period.  The Developing World continues to fight for wording which recognises the inequity of its position.  It does not seem to recognise that its ’victories’ over wording delay getting substantial funding to meet its mitigation and adaptation needs. The US, in particular, is resolved to block ‘unbalanced’ deals which put it at a competitive disadvantage to China and other developing countries.   China, which played a constructive role at Cancun and Durban,  reverted in Doha to talking at length about equity rather than trying to get deals done.

Running through the main issued carried forward from Durban:

1)      The ‘Shared Vision’: a global goal for substantially reducing global emissions by 2050, and timeframe for the global peaking of GHG  based on a review which starts in 2013 and is informed by the IPCC’s 5^th assessment report (climate science due out Sept 2013 and final report Oct 2014), make recommendations to COP21 at the end of 2015.

Doha progress: Timetable for the review confirmed including workshops prior to COP19 and COP20.

2)      Support for developing countries: Finance:

a)      Consider the work program of the Standing Committee on finance covering  1) improving coherence and coordination of climate change financing, 2) rationalization of the financial mechanism, 3) mobilization of financial resources, and 4) Measuring reporting & Verification (MRV) of support provided to developing countries.

Doha progress: Work program agreed but no substantive decisions.

b)      Endorse Songdo, Incheon City, South Korea as the host city of the Green Climate Fund.

Doha progress: Done.

c)       Considering where the money for the Green Climate Fund will come from.

Doha progress: Took note of the work program on long-term finance but did not make any decisions.

d)      Further, as the Fast Start money agreed at Copenhagen only went up to end 2012, deciding on the level of funding for 2013 to 2019 and where it will come from.

Doha progress: Only ‘encouraged’ countries to provide money for 2013 – 2015 at the rate at least to the average annual level with which they provided funds during the 2010-2012 fast-start finance period. 

Germany, the UK, France, Denmark, Sweden and the EU Commission separately pledged approximately $6 billion for this period.  It was rumoured Qatar would get the Gulf States, which have very substantial financial reserves, to make a commitment but nothing materialized.

3)      Support for developing countries: Technology:  

Doha progress:  The UNEP-led consortium will host of the Climate Technology Center (CTC), for an initial 5 years.

4)      GHG Mitigation:

a)      How to fund REDD+ (forests)

Doha progress: None.

b)      A framework for using markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions -

Doha progress: None.

c)       A new market-based mechanism to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote, mitigation actions

Doha progress: None.

d)      Sectorial approaches and sector-specific actions (Aviation and Shipping)

Doha progress: None.

e)      Studying agriculture

Doha progress: None.

5)      Adaptation:  Consider a work program on adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change.

Doha progress: Agreed to establish institutional arrangements including finance, technology and capacity-building to address loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change in developing countries.

6)      Process: Get the AWG-LCA (Adhoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) to complete its ‘Bali Action Plan’ work and terminated.  Work after COP18 should take place under the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.  Will this happen?

Doha progress: As noted above this was achieved in ‘form’ but many of the issues were transferred to the Durban Platform so the desired simplification was only partially achieved.

7)      Kyoto: The 2^nd commitment period 

Doha progress: 2nd commitment period from 1 Jan 2013 to 2020 agreed.  This is helpful in keeping CDM and other mechanisms working so they can be applied if/when the Durban Platform agrees a deal.  The 2nd commitment period has, however, very little impact as:

1. It only applies to the EU, Australia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Norway and Switzerland  - totalling 15% of global emissions.
2. With the EU keeping its reduction target to 20%. This is now a modest commitment.
3. The surplus of credits in the EU ETS have drastically lowered the prices paid for CDM in developing countries. 

For a more positive spin on the result see the UNFCCC's press release: http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press_releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/121208_final_pr_cop18_cf.pdf

J Robert Gibson

 

Doha snapshots

Doha's spectacular architecture:

MASSIVE Qatari National Conference Centre:

Qatar also has the highest carbon footprint per person in the world.  

Qatari citizens get free water and electricity and are estimated to consume 1,200 litres per day.  Nearly all the water for residential consumption comes from desalination plants powered by natural gas.  An estimated 30 to 35% of the water from desalination plants is lost from leaks in the distribution system.  This plus the high utilisation and limestone cap shortly below the surface has led to rising ground water which causes septic tanks to overflow.  This 'foul' ground water has to be pumped out of building sites with much of the discharge going into the sea with minimal treatment.

Robert Gibson

 

 

Doha in the Doldrums

Doha exhibits what Bill Barron calls 'The Great Disconnect'.  

On one hand we have continued messages from research organisation of the severity of environmental crisis and the size of the actio required.  Three more reports:

• The European Space Agency and NASA have reconciled their numbers on the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Caps.  The result shows ice caps, which had previously contributed very little to sea level risk, are now loosing mass at an accelerating rate. http://imbie.org/about-the-project/sea-level-rise/ 

• The University of East Anglia has summarised CO2 emission trends showing China dominating current emissions growth with India starting on a similar trajectory (see www.tyndall.ac.uk/communication/news-archive/2012/record-high-global-carbon-emissions)

But the negotiations seem to be making very little progress.  Issues such as REDD and Bunker Fuels put on one side till next year.

As LSE (Lord Stern) notes: The overall pace of policy change is recklessly slow. We are acting as if change is too difficult and costly and delay is not a problem. The rigidity of the processes under the UNFCCC and the behaviour of participants hinder progress. 
www2.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publications/Policy/docs/transition-low-carbon-economy.pdf

Robert Gibson

Preparing for Doha

The Climate Conferences (UNFCCC COPs) provide an annual stocktake on ‘How are we doing on climate change?’  The answer, per reports released in the last two months, is very badly:

• The World Meteological Organisation’s report of the continued increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/GHG_Bulletin_No.8_en.pdf.
• As noted in the last entry on this blog, the World Bank commissioned ‘Turn down the Heat’ report from the Potsdam Institute www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/11/18/new-report-examines-risks-of-degree-hotter-world-by-end-of-century notes the world is on course for 4C increase by the end of the century with severe adverse impacts.  In the forward to the report the Bank’s President hopes it ‘shocks us into action’ and calls for work to keep the temperature increase down to 2C.
• pwc however shows us how difficult keeping to 2C is.  In Too Late for Two Degrees report www.pwc.com/gx/en/sustainability/publications/low-carbon-economy-index/index.jhtml it notes that lack of action means the annual rate of decarbonisation needed up to 2050 has increased from 3.7% in 2000 to 5.1% now – See www.pwc.com/gx/en/sustainability/publications/low-carbon-economy-index/index.jhtml .  As pwc notes this appears unachievable.
• The IEA appears to agree.   Its World Energy Outlook www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/#d.en.26099 estimates that with policies governments say they are going to follow global energy demand will grow by more than one-third over the period to 2035 with emissions corresponding to a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 °C.  It also notes that without CCS no more than one-third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2C goal.
• On a positive note, the Cambridge University Corporate Leaders on Climate change have got companies, once again, to sign a communique asking for a price to be put on carbon emissions: www.climatecommuniques.com/Carbon-Price-Communique.aspx .
• BUT the extent of the disconnect between what is needed to stabilize the climate and current plans is brought out by a World Resources Institute (WRI) ‘Coal Risk Assessment’ working paper ‘http://pdf.wri.org/global_coal_risk_assessment.pdf. This notes that nearly 1,200 new coal fired power stations are proposed and that Australia, which is already the biggest coal exporter in the world, proposes to triple its export capacity to 900 million tonnes a year.

This is not to say ‘nothing is being done’.  Europe has done a great deal, it is encouraging that California has made its first auction on credits under its carbon trading scheme and China’s action on RE, Nuclear and energy efficiency is substantial.  But these are not enough.  They are just part of the action that the IEA assumes happens when it predicts 3.6C.  As pwc concludes in ‘Two Late for Two Degrees’ we must now prepare for a substantially warmer world.  Perhaps more of a focus on adaptation including the coastal cities which must be abandoned over the next 200 years will cause those at Doha to be more willing for their countries to pay for mitigating carbon emissions.

Robert Gibson