Here in Copenhagen things aren't looking good and early today there was very little chance of any type of deal. So frustrated is the Danish Minister that his office is in chaos and people are giving up hope that he can provide a revised text tomorrow to world leaders.
Talks in the last few days have been in deadlock largely because of a trust deficit and an inability to reconcille the sharp difference in emission cuts and how to fund them. Developing countries have felt very marginalised by a process that they think is clearly under the control of rich countries that they staged a walk-out on Tuesday. NGO's (so that is everyone from Mr/ Ms CEO to an angry activist) have been banned from entering the Bella Cantre (I think 300 (out of 30,000)can get in today) and the rest of us have been kept out in the cold leading to many protests in the Bella Centre and in Copenhagen.
The biggest worry today is that because of the delays, the negotiations are not ready for the leaders who had expected only to bargain over the final details in a prepared draft agreement. Frustrated negotiators are speaking openly of reaching a weak political agreement that would leave no clear way forward to tackle rising greenhouse gas emissions meaning that negotiations could stay in limbo well into next year.
However, as we all know talk to different people and you hear different things and being an optimist I think the momentum could turn positive at the 11th hour. Maybe there is a way through. Gordon Brown is doing a great job in being positive and proposing a new approach to financing climate change and Obama arrives on Friday with people hoping he'll be a game changer (even though he is constrained by tough politics at home).
Many people wonder if Obama could actually legally commit USA to any targets. Apparently he can bypass Congress through an 'executive agreement' and has the power to make an international commitment that enforces existing US Environmental laws. This is interesting as 2 weeks ago the EPA formally declared that greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide are a danger to human health -- a finding that could pave the way for massive new regulations under the Clean Air Act for cars, power plants, crude-oil refineries and chemical plants. Others however say that if the president signs an international climate treaty pledging reductions in carbon emissions, he will violate the Constitution that states that the president cannot sign treaties without the approval of two-thirds of the Senate.
All of the above is written 9km away from the Bella Centre! Luckily we are not literally 'out in the cold' but we are far from the action. However we are all off to an alternative COP forum today where they will video in COP negotiations and we will get to hear George Mombiot speak and others - people who really are concerned about the survival of our planet, rather than the politics of self interest and strategic procrastination.
Ciara Shannon (freezing)
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