Reflecting on COP15:
- The Bali Road Map process with its two years of negotiating leading up to two weeks of high stress in Copenhagen has failed to deliver a deal. Including the run up to Bali three + years has been taken out of the limited time we have left to stabilise the climate.
- Instead of a COP15 agreement, Brazil, China, India, South Africa and USA agreed a 'Copenhagen Accord' which was then 'noted' rather than 'adopted' by the COP15 meeting. The reaction of other countries to this 'Accord' varies. Most support it as it is a way to move forward. This must be the right as the failure to reach a deal in Copenhagen means delay in taking action and increases the risk that dangerous climate change will happen.
- So what is in the accord? In summary it is an agreement:
- That climate change is a problem and something must be done to reduce GHG emissions and adapt.
- To submit to the secretariate by 31st January 2010:
a) Quantified economywide emissions targets for 2020 by Annex 1 (developed) countries.
b) Mitigation actions by Non-Annex I (developing) Parties
- To report progress every two years. Annex 1 country progress will be measured, reported and verified by the UNFCC progress. Non Annex 1 country progress will only be measured, reported and verified ‘domestically'. (This difference was mainly due to
China’s concerns re its sovereignty.)
- Developed countries commit:
a) USD 30 billion for the period 2010 to 2012 for developing country action on adaptation and mitigation including work on forests.
b) USD 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 for developing countries with a governance structure providing for equal representation of developed and developing countries. A significant portion of this to flow through the ‘Copenhagen Green Climate Fund’ – to be established as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention to support developing countries mitigation including REDD-plus, adaptation, capacity building, technology development and transfer. The agreement doesn't specify how the money will be raised. Instead a High Level Panel will be established under UNFCCC to study how to meet this goal.
- A Technology Mechanism will be established to accelerate technology development and transfer in support of action on adaptation and mitigation
- Implementation of the Accord will be assessed by 2015 including consideration of strengthening the long-term goal referencing various matters including limiting temperature increases to 1.5C. (This timing fits in with the IPCC's next assessment report being finalised in 2014)
What next? Suggested answers:
- Firstly let us support the 'Accord'. Each country has until 31st January 2010 to make its commitments under it.
- Secondly a re-think is needed on the UNFCCC process. Getting 192 countries to agree anything is too slow and difficult. While one may sympathise with Tuvalu, the disruption this doomed country of 11,000 people caused to COP15 helped noone. We need a process which gets a manageable number of parties at the negotiating table. As COP15 showed if this is not done through formal process it will end up being done in a much less satisfactory informal manner.
- Third: All countries must consider their positions:
- Large countries must become fully responsible member contributors to global governance. The USA's long standing failure to join the Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Convention on Biological Diversity are examples of how far short it falls. China's 'sovereignty' concerns over MRV seem archaic. We need countries to recognise that we are on a single planet and must work together. We need China's leadership setting an example to developing countries by embracing internationally verified MRV.
- Small countries must work out a way of becoming constructive participants in the process. They cannot expect to each have a seat at the top table. Instead, small countries with similar interests must band together and appoint a representative.
What of us 'NGO' members who attended? I kept well clear of the Bella Centre (where the negotiations were), learned a great deal and benefited from discussing the issues with many business leaders, academics and NGOs from around the world. I attended:
- Forests Day - 1,500 people celebrating work being done on forests and looking forward to how much more they will be able to do when REDD++ money starts to flow.
- Oceans Day - About 250 people presenting worrying science on acidification and other changes in the planet's oceans and coastal regions. Watch this space for a further downward ratcheting of the scientific assessment of the safe boundaries for the use of Planet Earth.
- The International Energy Agency's presentations on its roadmaps for achieving 450ppm by 2050. A great but sobering assessment of how much needs to be done if we are to achieve this.
- The Climate Group's celebration of action taken to mitigate emissions by subnational Governments.
- Business gatherings arranged by Cambridge University, WBCSD, The Copenhagen Climate Council and The Climate Group. These included great examples of action being taken by individual companies but were diffuse underlying the message that business needs government to regulate before it can make the big changes which are required.
And a final word of sincere thanks to the Danes. Noone could have done more than they did to support the Bali Road Map and try and make Copenhagen a success. That COP15 failed inspite of their efforts was beyond their control. Let us hope the failure will lead to a building a new, stronger, global decision making structure. We desperately need this as the challenge of living within the boundaries of Planet Earth will become more severe and the decisions tougher in the years ahead.
Robert Gibson
